Systems thinking 101..the root cause of accidents and some unanswered questions

What is the most common “root cause” of accidents? That’s the question I’m most often asked as an accident researcher, regardless of project, stakeholder, organisation, or domain.

No doubt the intention is good. The organisation wants to expend its limited resources in the most efficient manner. It can’t afford to solve everything, so its efforts would be best suited if focussed on the one thing that’s involved in all incidents. Unfortunately this way of thinking is dangerous for many reasons. 

First and foremost there is never one specific contributory factor responsible for an accident. There is no root cause. Accidents are a complex phenomenon. They are caused by multiple interacting factors across the overall system of work, and often even normal, commonly accepted behaviours play a role in the ultimate outcome of events. Root cause thinking is too simple for such a complex beast – it ignores the many factors that contribute to accidents.

This means that it would be dangerous for organisations to think that there was one thing, one silver bullet, which they can focus on when developing accident countermeasures.

For example, imagine a series of incidents involving equipment failures. The organisation, with all good intentions, gets rid of their tired and broken equipment and goes out and acquires the latest state of the art equipment. A significant expenditure, no doubt, and one that would improve the quality of resources available to their workers.

The big problem, of course, is that they have not addressed why their equipment was tired and broken in the first place. The competing financial pressures, the limited allocation of funding for equipment maintenance, that ancient policy around replacing equipment, those equipment maintenance procedures, the absence of lines of communication around broken equipment, the training that doesn’t cover inappropriate usage of equipment etc. They are all left free to continue influencing events, to wreak havoc on the new shiny equipment; which in turn means this equipment will eventually return, gently pushed along by these other factors, to the unsafe state. The equipment alone was a red herring. In systems thinking terms replacing the equipment only would be a waste of time – little would change in the long term.

There is no root cause – avoid the temptation to think that there is and to focus on finding and removing it. This leaves many pertinent questions: how can we develop countermeasures that fully address the system wide factors that contribute to failures? How can we avoid the temptation to focus on root causes? How can we stop trying to eliminate the components of failure one by one, and instead identify effective, holistic, solutions? These remain key questions, not only for practitioners, but for researchers as well.

In our work with UPLOADS, and our projects in road and rail transport, we are trying to come up with some creative methods to address this problem. Stay tuned…

 

 

 

Posted in Uncategorized

UPLOADS Project Newsletter August 2014

Click here to read the UPLOADS Project August Newsletter which includes a participation update and information on our latest publications.

Posted in Newsletter

Data from the New Zealand National Incident Database informs the development of UPLOADS

A recent article published in Accident Analysis and Prevention explores how injuries and near-miss incidents that happen during led outdoor activities (such as hiking, rafting, orienteering, trekking, etc.) are reported to the New Zealand National Incident Database (NZ NID).

This article presents an analysis of 1014 incidents from the NZ NID. A version of Rasmussen’s Risk Management Framework was used to classify the contributing factors involved in each incident. The analysis identified contributing factors across all levels of the led outdoor activity system, demonstrating the framework’s applicability to the led outdoor activity injury domain. 

In addition, some limitations were identified with the NZ NID data collection framework. The reports only include categories for contributing factors related to the immediate context of the activity (i.e. participants, instructors, equipment, and the environment). Identifying other factors requires manual coding of the description of the incident. This makes it difficult to quickly produce summaries across multiple incident reports. Moreover, only including categories related to participants, instructors, equipment, and the environment, may lead reporters to unduly focus on these contributing factors, while ignoring issues related to the management of outdoor activities, and other systemic issues.

This analysis informed the development of the prototype UPLOADS incident reporting system.

Thank you to the Mountain Safety Council for sharing the data collected through the NZ NID with the UPLOADS Research Team.

The full version of the article is available here.

Published source:

Salmon PM, Goode N, Lenné MG, Finch CF, Cassell E. (2014). Injury causation in the great outdoors: A systems analysis of led outdoor activity injury incidents. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 63, 111– 120.

Posted in Outputs, Systems thinking

Invitation for experienced supervisors, managers and risk managers to participate in UPLOADS coding reliability study (Ethics Number: A/14/604)

The goal of the UPLOADS project is to develop a valid and reliable incident reporting system for the outdoor education, recreation and adventure sector in Australia. One component of the system is a taxonomy that organisations can use to code the causal factors involved in their incident reports. This will allow organisations to easily generate aggregate reports on the data they collect, so they can identify trends and develop appropriate countermeasures.
 
The aim of this study is to test the reliability of the UPLOADS Causal Factor Taxonomy for classifying the causal factors involved in incidents. Reliability means: 1) Different people select the same codes to describe the same causal factor; and 2) People select the same codes to describe the same causal factor on different occasions. This indicates that the taxonomy is easy to use and simple to understand.

The study involves using the UPLOADS causal factor taxonomy to code four incident reports on two separate occasions (one month apart). It should take you approximately one hour to complete the task on each occasion. You will be emailed the response booklet and instructions. You can fill in the response booklet on your computer – there is no need to print it out. After completion you will need to email back the response booklet.

If you would like to participate in the study and are a experienced supervisor, manager or risk manager please register here:

If you would like more information, please contact:

Natassia Goode
Email: uploadsproject@usc.edu.au
Phone: 07 5456 5850

Posted in Invitations to participate in research

Who is in the “outdoor” sector? National Outdoor Sector Survey 2013

One of the challenges for the National UPLOADS trial is estimating the “reach” of the study. Ultimately, we’d like to have everyone in the outdoor sector in Australia using UPLOADS. For now, we need to get some idea of the proportion of organisations in the outdoor sector who are participating. However, obtaining an accurate estimate of the total number of organisations providing outdoor activities has proved quite difficult.

Fortunately for us, we now have a new source of data: Service Skills Australia’s 2013 National Outdoor Sector Survey (NOSS). The NOSS provides an overview of the education providers, businesses, organisations, workers and volunteers in the outdoor sector. The analysis contained in the NOSS is based on the responses from 275 organisations.

While this doesn’t represent everyone in the outdoor sector, it does give us a benchmark for comparing the number of organisations participating in UPLOADS. So far, we’ve got 40 organisations signed up. So going on the NOSS data, this represents 15% reach across the sector. Not too bad for our first three months!

Note:

SSA have also created an additional survey to allow readers to provide feedback on the NOSS: https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/8C86ZV8. The feedback from this survey will be used to feed into the continuous improvement process for the outdoor recreation component of the Training Package and to inform the 2015 Environmental Scan.

Posted in Uncategorized

UPLOADS Project Newsletter July 2014

Click here to read the UPLOADS Project July Newsletter – lots of exciting updates, including details on an upcoming training session in NSW.

Posted in Events, Newsletter

Risk assessment for outdoor programs

Is there a risk assessment process that outdoor programs should be using? How does the UPLOADS Accident Analysis framework link to risk assessment? These questions are raised again and again during UPLOADS training sessions.

Luckily for me (and the outdoor sector), Clare Dallat was recently awarded a PhD scholarship to investigate these questions. She’ll join the USCAR Research team in September to start working on developing a valid and reliable risk assessment process for outdoor activity providers.

At the recent Outdoors Victoria conference Clare and I conducted a workshop to start to tease out some of these issues. There’s not a lot of research around risk assessment specifically for outdoor programs, so we wanted to start by understanding why people conduct risk assessments, and identify key confusions around the process.

Responses to the question “what is the role of risk assessment in your organisation” were pretty variable. Key themes included: concerns about liability and creating a paper trail for the lawyers; legislative duties; the identification of potential hazards and control strategies; passing on knowledge about hazards to those who are less experienced (e.g. students and volunteers); and integrating accident analysis from other organisations into your risk management plans.

In these responses, there seems to be a tension between the goals that outdoor activity providers want to achieve through risk assessment (e.g. improved safety) and external pressures to complete paperwork. While there is no reason per se why these goals cannot co-exist, during the workshop doubts were raised over whether “compliance” necessarily means “safer”.

A second issue is whether one document can have the capacity to address all these aims. Even if we only examine the safety-related themes there is clear potential for working at cross purposes. For example, a detailed risk assessment and control plan may not be the best means of communicating about hazards to students and volunteers.

From the discussion within the workshop, it’s also clear that there is a lot of confusion around developing risk assessments. For example, what is required of a particular organisation or school? Why are there so many negotiables on the documents the OV website? What are the other standards that apply to my context? Why do HR departments have different requirements to what works in outdoor programs? What happens when schools have to outsource activities – who should do the risk assessment?

Obviously one workshop is not enough to even start to resolve these issues…but they are on the UPLOADS radar!

Click here if you’d like to view our presentation from the conference: Outdoors Victoria Risk Assessment

 

 

Posted in Events

UPLOADS Project Newsletter June 2014

Click here to read our June Newsletter – lots of exciting updates, including details on upcoming training sessions in VIC and WA.

Posted in Events, Newsletter

Parks and Leisure Research Connections

Parks and Leisure Australia produce an annual Research Connections journal to “stimulate the ongoing exchange of knowledge between researchers and practitioners” in the outdoors. UPLOADS is featured in the new issue:

http://www.parksleisure.com.au/documents/item/2639

Posted in Outputs

Toward safer led outdoor activities: why we need systems thinking, why systems thinking needs systems data, and why now we need you!

It is well known that incidents, regardless of severity, are caused by multiple decisions, actions, and conditions that interact with one another in a way that enables adverse events. This is the case in highly complex systems such as aviation and rail, just as it is the case in led outdoor activities.

For the outdoor education, recreation and adventure sector, this ‘systems thinking’ tells us that there are many things outside of the participants, instructors, and the activity environment that contribute to incidents during activities. There is far more to it than just the things close to the event. These contributory factors might include issues related to procedures, risk management systems, training programs, policy and legislation, recruitment and staffing, supervisors, managers, CEOs, auditing, regulation etc. The list goes on and on; incidents in this sector are a complex beast.

So what can we do about it? For incidents prevention efforts it is critical that we use systems thinking to cope with this complexity, to tell us everything we need to know about why incidents are happening. We need to find out more than just ‘slippy terrain’, ‘participants fooling around’, and ‘poor instructor judgement’. What else played a role…days, weeks, even years before the incident? Only then can we make the kinds of changes that will truly prevent incidents.

Though it is tough, thankfully it is not impossible, to understand some of this complexity. The first step involves accepting that incidents are a systems problem. Most of the sector has already embraced this (and if you are reading this you are probably one of the converted).

The second step involves collecting appropriate information so that we can understand what the systemic problems are. Systems thinking needs systems data. This is the difficult part. We need the right tools to help us collect the right information that will enable us to develop an in-depth understanding of the causes of incidents. This will show us how certain things interact with one another to enable incidents. From the outset back in 2009 the goal of the UPLOADS program of research has been to provide those working in the outdoor education, recreation and adventure sector with the tools to enable collection of systems data.

After much blood, sweat, and tears (and plenty of good solid research) the UPLOADS system is finally ready. We have reviewed, specified, developed, tested, evaluated, argued, tweaked, refined, and improved the prototype to a point where we can do no more. It is time to hand it over to the sector for a full scale trial. This is both exciting and scary at the same time, but the excitement far exceeds the trepidation. This is because we are about to get the data that systems thinking needs. The data that the sector needs. Systems thinking can only work when there is systems data. This is what UPLOADS is all about, and because of UPLOADS we are about to better understand all kinds of incidents.

So here it is. Take a look around the website, read all about UPLOADS and how it works, look at the publications and presentations describing its development. But more importantly, sign up for the UPLOADS national trial. Buy in from the sector is critical. So far you have made a fantastic contribution, a huge contribution. UPLOADS would not be here without it. But now is the time to make the contribution that really matters.

We need as many organisations as possible across Australia, large and small, to use UPLOADS. Simply put, the more data we get, the more injury incidents we better understand. The more injury incidents we better understand, the safer we can make led outdoor activities across the board. Over to you!

Paul Salmon

 

Posted in Systems thinking
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